Exploring wind direction and SO2 concentration by circular-linear density estimation

The study of environmental problems usually requires the description of variables with different nature and the assessment of relations between them. In this work, an algorithm for flexible estimation of the joint density for a circular-linear variable is proposed. The method is applied for exploring the relation between wind direction and SO2 concentration in a monitoring station close to a power plant located in Galicia (NW-Spain), in order to compare the effectiveness of precautionary measures for pollutants reduction in two different years.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures, 2 table

Origin of Polar Order in Dense Suspensions of Phototactic Micro-Swimmers

A main question for the study of collective motion in living organisms is the origin of orientational polar order, i.e., how organisms align and what are the benefits of such collective behaviour. In the case of micro-organisms swimming at a low Reynolds number, steric repulsion and long-range hydrodynamic interactions are not sufficient to explain a homogeneous polar order state in which the direction of motion is aligned. An external symmetry-breaking guiding field such as a mechanism of taxis appears necessary to understand this phonemonon. We have investigated the onset of polar order in the velocity field induced by phototaxis in a suspension of a motile micro-organism, the algae Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, for density values above the limit provided by the hydrodynamic approximation of a force dipole model. We show that polar order originates from a combination of both the external guiding field intensity and the population density. In particular, we show evidence for a linear dependence of a phototactic guiding field on cell density to determine the polar order for dense suspensions and demonstrate the existence of a density threshold for the origin of polar order. This threshold represents the density value below which cells undergoing phototaxis are not able to maintain a homogeneous polar order state and marks the transition to ordered collective motion. Such a transition is driven by a noise dominated phototactic reorientation where the noise is modelled as a normal distribution with a variance that is inversely proportional to the guiding field strength. Finally, we discuss the role of density in dense suspensions of phototactic micro-swimmers

Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario

In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to quantify the concentration of annual rainfall and the number of dry months and to build a monsoon dimensionless seasonality index (DSI). The RE is projected to increase, with high inter-model agreement over Mediterranean-type regions---southern Europe, northern Africa and southern Australia---and areas of South and Central America, implying an increase in the number of dry days up to 1Â month by the end of the twenty-first century. Positive RE changes are also projected over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and North America, South America. These trends are consistent with a shortening of the wet season associated with a more prolonged pre-monsoonal dry period. The extent of the global monsoon region, characterized by large DSI, is projected to remain substantially unaltered. Centroid analysis shows that most of CMIP5 projections suggest that the monsoonal annual rainfall distribution is expected to change from early to late in the course of the hydrological year by the end of the twenty-first century and particularly after year 2050. This trend is particularly evident over northern Africa, southern Africa and western Mexico, where more than 90% of the models project a delay of the rainfall centroid from a few days up to 2Â weeks. Over the remaining monsoonal regions, there is little inter-model agreement in terms of centroid changes

Langevin diffusions on the torus: estimation and applications

We introduce stochastic models for continuous-time evolution of angles and develop their estimation. We focus on studying Langevin diffusions with stationary distributions equal to well-known distributions from directional statistics, since such diffusions can be regarded as toroidal analogues of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. Their likelihood function is a product of transition densities with no analytical expression, but that can be calculated by solving the Fokker–Planck equation numerically through adequate schemes. We propose three approximate likelihoods that are computationally tractable: (i) a likelihood based on the stationary distribution; (ii) toroidal adaptations of the Euler and Shoji–Ozaki pseudo-likelihoods; (iii) a likelihood based on a specific approximation to the transition density of the wrapped normal process. A simulation study compares, in dimensions one and two, the approximate transition densities to the exact ones, and investigates the empirical performance of the approximate likelihoods. Finally, two diffusions are used to model the evolution of the backbone angles of the protein G (PDB identifier 1GB1) during a molecular dynamics simulation. The software package sdetorus implements the estimation methods and applications presented in the paper

A comparison of methods for temporal analysis of aoristic crime

Objectives: To test the accuracy of various methods previously proposed (and one new method) to estimate offence times where the actual time of the event is not known. Methods: For 303 thefts of pedal cycles from railway stations, the actual offence time was determined from closed-circuit television and the resulting temporal distribution compared against commonly-used estimated distributions using circular statistics and analysis of residuals. Results: Aoristic analysis and allocation of a random time to each offence allow accurate estimation of peak offence times. Commonly-used deterministic methods were found to be inaccurate and to produce misleading results. Conclusions: It is important that analysts use the most accurate methods for temporal distribution approximation to ensure any resource decisions made on the basis of peak times are reliable